2020 Third Quarter Market Report

Posted on: October 26, 2020

From South Miami to Cocoa Beach, opportunities are surfacing for smart real estate investors as well as savvy buyers and sellers along Florida’s East Coast.

ONE Sotheby’s International Realty monitors the real estate market to guide our clients with high-quality insights and a strategic perspective. Our summary report highlights key market trends from communities across Florida’s East Coast during the third quarter of 2020.

Miami-Dade: A Seller’s Market for Single-Family Homes, Condos Making a Comeback

 

In Miami-Dade, the market for single-family homes continued to thrive in the third quarter of 2020, with sellers likely to obtain top dollar for their homes, with historically short days on the market. If priced correctly, multiple offer scenarios and bidding wars are expected. The drop of available inventory, decrease in days on the market, and the compression of the asking and selling price gap are clear indicators of a seller’s market. The most interesting outcome of Q3-2020 is the spillover effect to the condominium market. Condo sales were severely affected in Q2-2020 in terms of the number of sales, but Q3-2020 shows strong signs of recovery due to the partial reopening of the economy, and the easing of condominium showing restrictions.

  • Single-family homes sales were up 89% in the $500k+ price point as compared to Q2, with 15% increase in average sales price.
  • Demand for homes the $1M+ segment increased by 113% and for $5M+ by 224%, showing an increase in activity in the upscale market.
  • The condominium market behaved similarly, but more modestly. In the $500k+ price point the number of sales increased by 84%, while in the $1M+ and $5M+ the increase was 73% and 122% respectively.
  • Condo prices have been fairly stable, except for the $5M+ bracket where the average sold price slipped 12%.
  • This positive trend is expected to continue since the new development inventory supply has been decreasing for the last two years, along with a decrease in the pace of completion of new units compared to last five-year-period.

 

Broward County: Competitive Pricing is Key for Sellers

The $500k and $1M markets are recovering in volume but still weak in pricing, while the high-end market of $3M suffered a sharp decline in pricing. Buyers are looking for more value and lower price points across all price segments. Sales velocity and absorption rates are better in lower price points, and as a result, sellers need to be competitive and strategic with listing prices when presenting a property for sale.

  • The single-family homemarket is showing signs of recovery in the number of sales for all price segments: $500K+ (+98%), $1M+ (99%) and $3M+ (94%).
  • Despite the recovery, pricing was negatively affected. Average prices sold decreased by 7%, 15% and 39% respectively; and prices per square foot declined 4%, 12% and 34% respectively.
  • The condominium market (from $500k) is recovering from a sharp decline last quarter (-50%), with sales volume up by 60% quarter over quarter, but pricing is still weak, with average sales price dropping by 15% and price per square foot down by 10%.
  • The $1M+ condo segment behaved similarly with a 29% increase in number of transactions, but average sale prices declined by 14% overall and 8% per square foot.
  • The $3M+ condo submarket showed some strength in terms of pricing, with increases of 4% (average sale prices) and 33% (price per square foot) respectively, but Q3 showed a sharp decline in volume. The total number of transactions in this segment dropped 43%, forecasting potentially decreasing sales prices in the upper-end segment.

 


Palm Beach County: Ultra-Luxury Market Heating Up

The ultra-luxury market for single family homes is heating up. Sellers can benefit from the strong demand from out of state buyers to drive higher prices for their properties. Palm Beach County has proven to be a very strong contender to attract out of state buyers and we expect this trend to continue approaching the high season for FL real estate in Q4.

  • The single-family home market in Palm Beach County has experienced an increase in activity across all price segments, with slightly better behavior in the lower price points.
  • The single-family home market for the $500k properties had an increase in activity of 84%, the $1M+ bracket +79% and the $5M+ sub-market +76%; while prices were not significantly affected across all price points.
  • The condominium market has recovered from the average 33% contraction experienced in the second quarter. The number of sales rose 30% in the $500k+ submarket, 18% for the $1M+ condos and dropped 14% in the ultra-luxury market defined by $5M condominiums.
  • While the number of transactions were slightly lower in the higher end market, the average closing price increased by 9% and by 55% per square foot, indicating a low price-elasticity in the ultra-luxury market.
  • The average price of the 74 units sold over the $5M mark was $9.2M. Palm Beach County remains the highest price point of all markets covered in this report, with the county enjoying a significant influx of domestic buyers from wealthier areas in the country, especially from the Northeast, Illinois and California.

 


Martin County: A Buyer’s Market, with Opportunities for Strategic Sellers

 

Martin County is a buyer’s market, and sellers looking to position their properties for sale need to be strategic to remain competitive. The upper-end segment has been more affected, creating opportunities for buyers and investors looking for upscale properties. However, the increase in demand for single-family homes should not be mistaken with listing price increases.

  • The Martin County region is going through a more challenging performance in single-family homes and condos. Despite that, single-family homes sales were up 45% for the $300K+ price point, 65% for the $1M+ and down 40% for the $3M+ submarket.
  • Prices reacted in the opposite direction. In the lower end, average prices dropped by 6%, in the middle market 26%, but in the high-end market average prices were slightly up by 4%. Prices per square foot weakened in the lower end and middle market by 9% and 17% respectively while the high-end market prices per square foot rose 13%.
  • Surprisingly, the condominium market in Martin County has retracted significantly in Q3-2020 after a strong Q2-2020, however the small number of recorded sales skews the statistics. There were only four condos sold over $300k in the third quarter, with no sales over $1M, down from 15 total condominiums sold in the previous quarter. This represents a contraction of 73% in volume, 39% in the average price and 17% in the price per square foot. This behavior was somehow off trend, so we expect a rebound approaching season.

 


Indian River County: Strong Sales and Waterfront Wins

 

The Indian River Country region performed very well in the third quarter of 2020. Single-family home sellers will enjoy healthy prices and fewer days on the market. The condo market is seeing a contrast in performance at opposite ends of the spectrum, with the low-end market underperforming the high-end market. This type of behavior is typical of markets attracting a high percentage of second homes buyers.

  • The $300k+ single-family homes market transaction volume increased by 39%, with average prices up by 20% and the average price per square foot up by 18%.
  • The luxury market ($1M+) was even stronger, with solid gains in volume (+67%) and pricing. Average closing price and prices per square foot increased 34% and 16%, respectively.
  • The high-end market is showing a healthy pattern, with the number of transactions up by 40%, average prices up 18% and prices per square foot, 18%. Most of the high-end sales were concentrated in the oceanfront single-family home market, creating significant impact in the average price of single-family homes sold.
  • The condo market hasn’t been as dynamic, with activity up by 32% in the $300k category, and down 50% in the $1M+ category. However, in the luxury segment ($1M+), average prices were significantly up by 44% and prices per square foot rose by 22%.

 


Brevard County: Market Expanding Alongside Area’s Employment Opportunities

 

The Brevard County single-family home market continues to expand with extensive new development activity. Listings will continue to move promptly when priced competitively, providing liquidity to realistic sellers. The condominium continues to evolve and mature amidst the increase in the employment opportunities in the area and the arrival of new developments that will allow prices per square foot to increase.

  • There were 1,235 homes over $300k+ sold during the third quarter of 2020, up from 915 (+35%). Despite this significant increase in volume, prices remained fairly flat.
  • The luxury market ($1M) number of transactions increased 57%, while the average price slipped 9%.
  • The condo market also improved in terms of activity (+63%) and prices (+5%). There was no activity in condominiums over $1M yet in Brevard County.

 


Final Remarks:

The real estate market is strong in most regions along Florida’s East Coast. This has been enhanced by out-of-state buyers, attracted by tax advantages, the outdoor lifestyle, less dense urban environments and lower cost of living. There is a clear increase in demand from states with high tax rates including the Northeast, Illinois and California. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced people to reassess their priorities and desired lifestyle, looking for less dense housing alternatives and more outdoor spaces. This trend will continue to spark demand especially approaching the winter season when snowbirds flock to the South to enjoy all the Sunshine State has to offer.

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Joelle Oiknine has been recognized as one of the Top Ten producing agents at ONE Sotheby’s International Realty as well as being named to the Real Trends WSJ Top 100 agents in Miami on multiple occasions.